THE WORLD HEAT MAP: risks and magnitude map
TEXT BOX: WATCHILIST OF THE MAJOR PROBLEMS, AND HOW MUCH THESE ARE GOING TO AMPLIFY THE RISK OF ECONOMZ SLOW DOWNS.
PRESENCE OF CONFLICT AND MAGNITUDE
INCREASE OR DECREASE IN RISK
RISK FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY/FINANCE
ALL THE TOPICS WILL BE ANALYSED WITH DEDICATED ARTICLE IN THE MAIN PAGE
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MONTHLY RECAP & CONSIDERATION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE
GERMANY & EU
- energy mix evolution & Ukraine war trend.
- low GDP growth: traditional business slow down (e.g. Automotive) & low focus on innovative sectors.
- is EU going to have a shared debt for innovate? See Mario Draghi report. this is an aspect that could affect heavily future economy of the area.
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- Israel war against Hamas is going to influence oil and energy prices. Also the perception of EU and USA around the world will be changed during the conflict. diplomatic relations around the world could deteriorate.
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RUSSIA
- War in Ukraine: not considered dangerous globally because stalling. in addition, Europe reacted from the energy supply side and situation is improving.
The problem persist and will increase if Ukraine will start fighting also on the russian territory.
USA
- Recession risk: interest rate too high for too long. risk LOW: FED cutted strongly and actually is promising a new big cut within the year 2024.
- Elections: Kamala & Trump still 50% 50%. risk in world economy if Trump wins.
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SOUTH AMERICA
AFRICA:
- Debt Burden: Many African countries have high levels of debt, especially with China. The management fo this issue will shape the future relationships of the continent
- Infrastructure Deficit: Africa faces a significant infrastructure deficit, particularly in areas such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications.
CHINA
- Real estate collapse: going on. possibility is that it is going to affect economy even more.
- GDP: still growing strongl, between 4&5%, but not at the previous levels. there is
- Taiwan annexation: actual risk low. still not started. USA is a great deterrent for the operations to start
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